Asian markets in tears over recession fears (From Agence France-Presse)
~ Saturday, December 24, 2022 Blog Post ~
HONG KONG: Asian stocks fell again on Friday after forecast-beating United States data fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lift interest rates well into next year.
A glum warning from top chipmaker Micron and worries about China’s surging coronavirus cases added to the less-than-Christmassy mood on trading floors.
Investors have been on a rollercoaster ride this month with slowing inflation and an easing of monetary policy hikes offset by central bank warnings that borrowing costs would probably have to go higher than expected.
Those worries were increased by the Bank of Japan’s shock decision this week to move away from its ultra-loose monetary policy, increasing bets on an even more restrictive investment environment in 2023.
Wall Street’s three main indexes ended in the red on Thursday after revised figures showed that the world’s biggest economy grew a lot more in the third quarter than first thought, while jobless claims rose less than expected last week.
The readings suggested that despite almost a year of rate hikes and soaring inflation, activity remained strong and the Fed had much more work to do.
That came as Micron Technology said the industry’s worst supply glut in more than 10 years meant it would struggle to return to profit next year.
It also saw a big drop in sales and a heftier loss than forecast this quarter.
“The Grinch selloff is firmly in place after Micron delivered a gloomy outlook and as better-than-expected US economic data supported the Fed’s case for more ongoing rate increases,” Oanda’s Edward Moya said.
“Global coordinated central bank tightening [is] yet to fully impact most of the economic readings for the major economies and that should have investors nervous over earnings downgrades and credit risks,” he added.
The losses in New York extended into Asia.
Tokyo shed 1 percent as data showing Japanese inflation hitting a 41-year high reinforced expectations that the East Asian country’s central bank would raise interest rates next year.
Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Mumbai, Bangkok, Singapore, Wellington, Taipei, Manila and Jakarta also closed lower.
London was flat at the open, while Paris and Frankfurt edged up.
“The consumer has a lot more strength than I think what the market was pricing in,” TD Securities’ Priya Misra told Bloomberg Television.
“When the accumulated savings they’ve had since Covid, when that runs out, which we think happens by the middle of next year, that’s when consumer spending slows down,” she said.
Hopes that China’s growth would surge as it rolls back its “zero Covid” strategy have been overshadowed by a surge in cases across the country that has kept people at home, and battered travel and economic activity.
“The spike in Covid-19 infection rates following the easing of mobility restrictions will still constrain economic activity in the December-January time frame,” Guan Yi Low of M&G Investments said.
Still, expectations that demand for crude would pick up in the new year, as well as a drop in US stockpiles, is providing healthy support to the commodity, with both main contracts rising about 5 percent this week.
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